As projections indicate, 2024 is poised to become the warmest year in recorded history, marked by severe heatwaves and devastating storms. The European climate service has confirmed that global average temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, setting a worrying precedent for the future of our planet.
This unprecedented temperature rise can be primarily attributed to human-induced climate change, with natural phenomena like the El Niño weather pattern playing a secondary role. With the UN Climate Conference (COP29) approaching next week in Azerbaijan, scientists emphasize the urgency for global leaders to take significant action.
“This record serves as a stark reminder of the pressing need for governments at COP29 to act decisively to curb further warming,” notes Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society.
The first ten months of 2024 have shown extraordinarily high temperatures, with only a drastic decrease in the remaining months capable of averting a record-setting year. Current data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service suggests that 2024 could be at least 1.55°C hotter than pre-industrial averages.
The term pre-industrial refers to the benchmark period from 1850-1900, prior to significant human impacts such as extensive fossil fuel combustion. If projections hold true, 2024 would surpass last year’s record of 1.48°C, marking a critical milestone in global temperature records.
According to Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, this would signify the first calendar year that crosses the 1.5°C threshold—an important benchmark reaffirmed by nearly 200 nations under the Paris climate agreement aimed at limiting long-term warming.
While breaching this limit does not entirely negate the Paris agreement’s goals, it does bring us closer to exceeding that average over longer periods, which could lead to catastrophic climate impacts.
The early warmth of 2024 was partially driven by the natural El Niño cycle, where warmer surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean release additional heat into the atmosphere. This phase began in mid-2023 and continued until April 2024 but has kept temperatures unusually elevated since then.
Recent reports indicate that global average temperatures have consistently set new records for this time of year, according to Copernicus data. As scientists anticipate a shift towards La Niña, which traditionally cools global temperatures, uncertainty remains about its impact in 2025 and beyond.
Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, stated that while we may see temporary fluctuations, the relentless rise in greenhouse gases indicates we will likely continue setting new temperature records.
With increasingly severe storms and extreme weather patterns becoming more common, experts agree that achieving net-zero emissions is essential for stabilizing global temperatures and mitigating disaster costs. The path forward will demand urgent and unified action from governments worldwide as they confront an uncertain climate future.
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