The role of leader of the opposition is often described as one of the most challenging in politics, especially after a party has experienced a significant electoral defeat. Historical context can be daunting; for instance, after the Conservatives faced a severe loss in 1997, it took them 13 years and four different leaders to regain power. Similarly, Labour’s exit from power in 2010 meant they had to wait 14 years and go through three leaders before achieving victory again in July.

Currently, the competition to succeed Rishi Sunak as the head of the Conservative Party is heating up. Historical trends suggest that new leaders can emerge from unexpected places, which adds intrigue to the ongoing race. On Saturday at approximately 11:00 GMT, the new leader will be revealed at a venue near Westminster, with Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick as the final contenders. Many political observers favor Badenoch as the likely winner, but gauging the sentiments of Conservative Party members is complex and often yields surprises.

Both candidates are aware that turnout for this election may not match previous years; during Liz Truss’s victory two years ago, over 82% of members cast votes. Current estimates suggest participation might dip below 70%. The nature of this election differs since it does not involve selecting a prime minister.

On the day of the announcement, both candidates will arrive independently and will have designated areas for preparation. They will be called into a separate room just prior to receiving their results together. Afterward, they must display composure while entering the results area where party chairman Richard Fuller will make remarks before Bob Blackman announces the outcome.

The victor will deliver a speech aimed at both party members and the broader public, while the runner-up remains seated in silence. Both candidates spent Friday crafting their statements for this critical moment. Following the announcement, media engagement will be crucial as journalists rush to interview key figures.

The winning candidate will quickly transition to Conservative campaign headquarters to address necessary administrative tasks and assemble their team, while the defeated candidate will need to arrange their return home—illustrating how unforgiving politics can be.

Badenoch has been widely regarded as a favorite since she and Jenrick became finalists. While support for her remains strong among many party members, Jenrick has campaigned energetically, engaging with thousands of members across numerous events and media appearances.

As supporters rally behind both candidates—each aware of the daunting responsibilities ahead—the anticipation builds for who will ultimately claim leadership of the Conservative Party. The outcome will soon be unveiled on Saturday.