The role of the leader of the opposition in politics is notoriously challenging, especially following a significant electoral defeat. Historical examples highlight this difficulty; for instance, after the Conservative Party suffered a major loss in 1997, it took them 13 years and four leaders to regain power. Similarly, Labour faced a lengthy period in opposition after their defeat in 2010, taking 14 years and three leaders to return to success.

Currently, the race to succeed Rishi Sunak as the leader of the Conservative Party has proven to be quite competitive. As we approach the announcement scheduled for just after 11:00 GMT on Saturday at a venue near Westminster, attention turns to whether Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will emerge victorious. Many political insiders lean toward Badenoch as the likely winner, but predicting outcomes based on polling within party membership can be complex and often yields unexpected results. Both candidates’ teams anticipate lower turnout compared to two years ago, when Liz Truss secured victory with an 82.5% participation rate; one campaign source speculated that this time turnout might not even reach 70%.

The announcement process will be straightforward. Both candidates will arrive separately and have designated areas backstage. They will be called into a third space where they will jointly receive the results just before the official announcement. Afterward, they must maintain composure while making their way into the results room—a moment filled with suspense for everyone present.

The Conservative Party chairman, Richard Fuller, will say a few words before Bob Blackman, chair of the 1922 Committee, reveals who won. The winner will deliver a speech aimed not just at party members but also at the broader public, while the other candidate remains seated.

Both Badenoch and Jenrick dedicated Friday to crafting their messages for this pivotal moment. Following the announcement, media interactions are expected to be intense as senior party figures seek interviews. The winning candidate will then head to Conservative campaign headquarters for briefings and appointments, while the runner-up will likely find their own way home.

For those currently holding frontbench positions under Sunak’s administration, they have been asked to stay in place until Wednesday. The incoming leader is anticipated to begin appointing their senior team over the weekend while also preparing for parliamentary duties starting Monday.

Most observers consider Badenoch as the frontrunner since she and Jenrick became finalists, though some remain skeptical. Jenrick has campaigned energetically as an underdog, participating in numerous events and engaging extensively with party members through various media platforms. Badenoch has also been active but ramped up her outreach closer to decision day. Each candidate recognizes that leading against Starmer would be a formidable challenge ahead of them. The wait is nearly over to see who will take on this demanding role within the party.