On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to choose their next president. Originally anticipated as a rematch of the 2020 election, the political landscape shifted dramatically in July when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. This change has raised an intriguing question: will the nation see its first female president or a continuation of Donald Trump’s presidency?

As election day nears, attention will focus on polling trends and the impact of campaign efforts on the race for the White House. Since entering the race at the end of July, Harris has maintained a slight edge over Trump in national polling averages. Early in her campaign, she experienced a surge that allowed her to establish a nearly four-point lead by late August. While polls remained relatively stable in September and early October, they have recently narrowed, indicating a competitive matchup as reflected in various individual poll results.

Although national polls provide insight into overall candidate popularity, they are not definitive predictors of election outcomes due to the United States' electoral college system. Each state is allocated electoral votes roughly proportional to its population, totaling 538 votes. A candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes to claim victory. Given that many states consistently lean towards one party, only a limited number of battleground or swing states truly determine the election.

Currently, margins in these contested states are razor-thin, making it difficult to ascertain who holds the actual advantage based solely on polling averages. Polls are primarily designed to capture public sentiment rather than provide precise predictions with minimal margins. Furthermore, individual polls typically have a margin of error of about three to four percentage points, suggesting that either candidate could be performing better or worse than indicated.

Since Harris joined the race, trends have shown notable variations across states. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, Trump presently holds a slight advantage after several lead changes since August. Conversely, Harris had been ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since early August; however, recent polling indicates Trump is now narrowly leading in Pennsylvania.

These three states were once Democratic strongholds but shifted toward Trump in 2016 before being reclaimed by Biden in 2020. If Harris can replicate this success, she stands a strong chance of winning the presidency.

The dynamics of this race have evolved significantly since Biden’s withdrawal when he was trailing Trump by nearly five points across seven swing states. Pennsylvania is particularly critical due to its substantial electoral votes.

Polling analysis site 538 aggregates data from numerous national and state-level surveys while adhering to strict quality control measures regarding transparency and methodology for data collection.

Historically, polls have underestimated Trump’s support during previous elections; experts noted significant errors occurred during both 2016 and 2020 due to various factors affecting voter responses. Adjustments made by pollsters following these experiences suggest improvements may be realized this election cycle but uncertainty remains until after voting concludes.