The European Commission has updated its economic growth forecasts for Italy, lowering expectations from its May forecast. According to the new data, Italy’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, from the 0.9% previously forecast. For 2025 and 2026, it is estimated to grow by 1% and 1.2%, respectively. In a broader context, economic growth in the Eurozone is confirmed for this year with an increase of 0.8%, while for 2025 a slight decrease to 1.3% is expected. Estimates for the entire European Union have also been revised downwards: an increase of 0.9% is expected in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.
The European Commission has recorded an increase in Italian public debt. It is expected to reach 136.6% of GDP in 2024, rising to 138.2% in 2025 and 139.3% in 2026. These estimates improve expectations from the spring, when higher public debt was expected. In parallel, the Italian deficit is set to decline significantly from 7.2% last year to 3.8% in 2024 and further to 2.9% in 2026. The revisions indicate an improvement compared to previous estimates.
The European Commission has highlighted that real GDP growth in Italy will be supported by investments and the decrease in imports. A recovery in consumption is expected thanks to the acceleration of spending linked to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).
The Commission’s analysis highlights growing uncertainties related to geopolitical security and global trade dynamics. In particular, the persistence of international conflicts could negatively affect the European economy. On the domestic front, political instability and structural difficulties in the manufacturing sector pose additional challenges. Delays in the implementation of recovery projects could hinder the economic recovery. In conclusion, while Italy is going through a phase of moderate growth with signs of improvement in the management of debt and public deficit, it remains essential to monitor geopolitical developments and internal challenges that could affect the economic future of the country.
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