COP29, the annual UN climate conference, opens in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22. Although former President Donald Trump will not be present, his influence is felt and could determine the outcome of the negotiations. During the election campaign, Trump expressed his intention to withdraw the United States again from the Paris Agreement, a move that would have significant consequences for global climate policies.
Trump has said that if elected, he intends not only to abandon the Paris Agreement, but also to consider withdrawing from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This would mean the United States would no longer participate in international climate negotiations.
During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly emphasized his energy strategy: “Drill, drill, drill,” promoting oil and gas extraction as a top priority. This approach would ensure the United States' energy self-sufficiency and position as an exporter, but it would also increase greenhouse gas emissions. Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned that while the Paris Agreement could survive, the United States' withdrawal could cripple its effects. Francesco Corvaro, Italy’s special envoy for climate, stressed that without American involvement, progress would be limited.
This year in Baku, the main topic of discussion will be climate finance. The new instrument to support vulnerable countries will replace the $100 billion per year fund established under the Paris Agreement. Only in 2022 did this fund reach that amount. However, negotiations are expected to be complex: vulnerable countries demand more resources and freedom of use, while donors are reluctant and want clear rules. The absence of President Biden and other world leaders such as Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi raises questions about the future of the conference. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to speak on November 13. However, if Trump were to announce drastic measures regarding climate policies during the conference, it could seriously undermine efforts for a global commitment to sustainability. In an already fragile international climate policy environment, the United States’ disengagement could push other powers to backtrack on their commitments to decarbonization. If that were to happen, the future of global climate policies would risk being on a dead-end track.
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