In September 2024, the Italian industry seems to be facing a new phase of difficulty. According to Istat estimates, the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production is expected to decrease by 0.4% compared to the previous month. This contraction is not only a monthly phenomenon, but also extends on an annual basis, with an overall decrease of 4.0% compared to the same month last year.
Istat highlights that the contraction of the index adjusted for calendar effects has persisted for twenty months. In the third quarter of 2024, industrial production recorded a decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous three months. If we look at the monthly data more closely, some interesting trends emerge. The index shows an increase for intermediate goods (+1.9%) and capital goods (+1.8%), while sectors such as energy and consumer goods show signs of weakness with declines of 3.8% and 2.5% respectively.
The annual declines hit all production sectors. However, the fall is more pronounced for capital goods (-5.1%) and intermediate goods (-4.0%), while the losses in consumer goods (-3.5%) and energy (-1.6%) are less marked.
Despite the overall picture being worrying, some sectors are showing signs of growth. The manufacture of electrical equipment has seen a trend increase of 5.9%, followed by the production of computers and electronic products (+1.9%) and mining activities (+1.8%). On the other hand, difficulties are evident in other areas. The manufacturing of means of transport suffered a dramatic decline of 15.4%, along with sectors such as textiles and clothing (-10.7%) and the manufacturing of coke and refined petroleum products (-8.1%).
These data suggest that the Italian industrial sector could continue to be in a phase of stagnation or even recession. Companies will have to adapt to these new challenges to remain competitive in the global market. The need for innovation and diversification could become increasingly crucial to address future economic turbulence.
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