Recent statements by the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, during a hearing at the Budget Committees of the Chamber and Senate, suggest that the preliminary estimates of GDP 2024 could undergo an upward revision. According to Giorgetti, the short-term growth prospects are encouraging, with the forecast that GDP will return to expansion by the end of the year. Giorgetti stressed that the expected improvement is mainly due to the recovery of net foreign demand and the recovery of domestic consumption.
“Forecast models point to a return to growth in the final quarter of the year,” the minister said.
A crucial aspect of Giorgetti’s statements concerns the credibility of the Italian government, which played a significant role in the recent upward revision of the economic outlook by two rating agencies. Furthermore, the minister highlighted how prudence in the management of public finances has contributed to reducing the spread from the high levels recorded two years ago. Giorgetti also clarified that the resources deriving from the preventive agreement introduced in the tax decree-law were not included in the financial coverage for reasons of prudence. Only when these resources are quantified and recorded in the budget, can they be allocated to interventions aimed at reducing the tax burden.
The minister highlighted how, despite international uncertainties, responsible management of public finances has allowed the main support interventions for low- and medium-income workers to be maintained and even strengthened. These measures, already adopted in previous maneuvers, now take on a more structured configuration. On defense investments, Giorgetti noted that the 2% of GDP target requested by NATO remains ambitious. According to current forecasts, Italy will stand at 1.57% in 2025, rising slightly in subsequent years.
In conclusion, as Italy prepares to face significant economic challenges, Giorgetti’s statements offer a glimmer of hope. With prudent management of public finances and targeted strategies to support incomes, the government could be on the right track to stabilize the national economy and improve the conditions of Italian citizens. However, it remains crucial to monitor the evolution of the international situation and the effects on domestic policies.
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