Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti recently shared optimism about GDP growth estimates for 2024 during a hearing at the Budget Committees of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. With positive indications for the end of the year, the government appears ready to revise upwards its economic forecasts.
Giorgetti stressed that the short-term outlook is encouraging. According to forecasting models, a return to growth is expected in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by the recovery of net foreign demand and the recovery of domestic consumption.
The minister highlighted how the government’s credibility and prudent management of public finances have led to a positive revision of the economic outlook by several rating agencies. He also noted that the spread has decreased compared to the levels of two years ago, marking significant progress. Giorgetti warned about the use of resources deriving from the preventive agreement introduced in the tax decree-law, stating that these were not included in the coverage for reasons of prudence. Only after a certain quantification will it be possible to allocate them to the financing of the reduction of the tax burden.
The current international climate is characterized by uncertainty, but the government is determined to maintain responsible management of public finances. Giorgetti reassured that there is room to confirm and strengthen the interventions already adopted to support low-middle incomes. In response to criticism of the recent fiscal maneuver, the minister clarified that there have been important changes compared to previous policies. The confirmation and modification of some measures can help reduce the fears of market operators related to economic uncertainty.
On the defense front, the minister acknowledged that the 2% of GDP target requested by NATO is ambitious and presents challenges in terms of financial coverage. Projections indicate that percentages of 1.57% will be reached in 2025 and progressively up to 1.61% in 2027. Giorgetti expressed surprise at the protests he received from unions regarding the allocations for low- and middle-income families. He reiterated the importance of these resources to stimulate growth through increased demand. Looking ahead, the focus remains on the government’s ability to steer a prudent course in a volatile global economic environment, while seeking ways to truly support citizens and revive the economy.
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