In a tense and unpredictable political climate, Donald Trump won his second presidency, demonstrating surprising resilience. From the early stages of the count, it was clear that the Republican candidate was getting positive results, particularly in the southern states. North Carolina was the first victory declared by the media, followed by Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Currently, Trump is also ahead in key states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. Analyzing the data provided by the Washington Post, an interesting picture emerges: almost all counties show an improvement in results compared to the 2020 elections. The former president has strengthened his position in rural areas, where he has already obtained a good consensus. This trend has been accompanied by worrying results for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party.
Exit polls revealed significant weakness in Harris’ candidacy among Latino voters. Only 53% of this group chose the Democratic nominee, a significant drop from the 65% Biden won in 2020. The decline was particularly notable in Miami-Dade, where Harris suffered a defeat by more than 10 points compared to Biden.
Another aspect to consider is the issue of abortion. Although Trump had to moderate his position on this issue during the campaign, Republicans were able to mobilize voters who are against abortion. In contrast, Harris was unable to convince those who support abortion rights in most cases. In the battleground states, polls have been more accurate than in previous elections. Although there was a slight undercount of Trump’s vote, this is within the margin of error of sample surveys. According to Nate Silver’s model, Trump is likely to win all the key states. He also has a chance of winning the popular vote, a rare event for Republicans since George W. Bush’s victory in 2004. In conclusion, as the final results continue to emerge, attention remains high on how this new chapter in US politics will impact the future of the country and what strategies both parties will adopt in the coming years.
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