The recent fiscal maneuver has led to a significant increase in the number of beneficiaries of the tax wedge cut, with 2.4 million people set to benefit from it. Estimates indicate that the merging of Irpef rates will contribute to an increase in average disposable income for families of 1.5%, according to the Bank of Italy. However, the climate of optimism is clouded by numerous questions regarding economic growth and the impact of healthcare costs.
The government set an initial growth forecast of 1%, but recent reports of zero growth in the third quarter have forced Istat to revise its estimates downwards, now estimating acquired growth for 2024 of 0.4%.
Andrea Brandolini of the Bank of Italy stressed that “economic activity would struggle to regain momentum” and that without a significant acceleration, the growth expectations outlined in the Structural Plan for the two-year period 2024-25 could prove unrealistic. This situation is aggravated by geopolitical and trade risks that could affect the sustainability of public debt. The objective of reducing debt to GDP is only foreseen from 2027, which raises concerns among economic experts.
Another crucial aspect concerns healthcare. According to Istat, in 2023, 7.6% of Italians gave up treatment for economic reasons or long waiting lists, an increase compared to 6.3% in 2019. Healthcare spending decreased by 0.4%, stabilizing at pre-pandemic levels at 130.2 billion, but it is insufficient to cover the needs of the Regions. Furthermore, an increase in demand for healthcare personnel is expected: Bankitalia estimates that in the next ten years a 30% increase in the number of doctors will be necessary. Parliamentary hearings also raised doubts about measures for births; Brandolini suggested the importance of investing in nurseries and parental leave rather than direct transfers to families.
The future of the fiscal maneuver remains uncertain. While a balance is sought between the promises made and the constraints imposed by the new EU Pact, the economic challenges continue to grow. With the effects of the PNRR running out after 2026, as CNEL President Renato Brunetta warns, it will be essential to review fiscal strategies to ensure stability and sustainable growth in the long term.
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