Current global conflicts could lead to a new nuclear arms race, especially involving smaller countries. This concern was expressed by experts at the Amaldi Conference in Rome, an event that has been analyzing the issue of nuclear weapons for many years. The meeting was organized by the Accademia dei Lincei, the National Academy of Sciences of the United States and the Pugwash movement, a non-governmental organization that was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995. The main theme of the conference was “The Risks of Nuclear Weapons in Troubled Times”. At the event, Pugwash President Hussain al-Shahristani opened the proceedings by highlighting the possibility that current conflicts could accelerate a nuclear escalation.

Luciano Maiani, a physicist at CERN and coordinator of the working group on ‘International Security and Arms Control’, highlighted five key points that emerged from the meeting. The first concerns the climatic consequences of a nuclear war: although it has been discussed for about twenty-five years based on imprecise atmospheric models, current simulations allow us to predict that a nuclear conflict would release millions of tons of harmful materials into the atmosphere. These substances could create a layer of smoke in the stratosphere, blocking the sun and giving rise to a phenomenon known as “nuclear winter”, with devastating consequences for agriculture and potential mass extinctions.

Another point of great concern is related to the war in Ukraine, seen as one of the riskiest situations in terms of nuclear escalation. Experts wonder what Europe’s response could be to a possible worsening of the conflict. In this context, Japan, South Korea and Australia are trying to establish direct communication with North Korea to avoid misunderstandings that could trigger nuclear conflicts.

Another concern is the possibility that smaller states will seek to acquire nuclear weapons, joining the nine countries that already have such weapons: the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. Finally, there is the question of the START Treaty: since 1991 it has allowed a significant reduction in nuclear weapons from 70,000 to about 2,000. Its expiration in 2026 raises questions about what will happen in the future regarding nuclear arms control.