Ursula von der Leyen faces a new challenge, with a visible rift between Hungary and Brussels that seems difficult to heal. The recent visit of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to Tbilisi, which took place a few hours after the elections that saw the victory of the pro-Russian Georgian Dream, raises concerns about possible repercussions beyond the Caucasus. The European Union has not yet recognized the legitimacy of these elections, making the Georgian dossier crucial in the coming days. Charles Michel has already included this issue in the agenda of the EU summit to be held in Budapest on November 8, chaired by Orban.

In the run-up to the summit, the Union could face new tensions. Orban, under threat of a freeze on EU funds after a confrontation with the European Parliament in early October, has stepped up his criticism of the Union. He congratulated Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze even before the results favored the pro-Russians and visited Tbilisi to celebrate what he called “free and democratic” elections.

The Hungarian PM said that the Georgian government is chosen by the people and not by the EU, adding that Georgia is not following Ukraine’s fate. Tensions have also increased thanks to statements by Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, while Orban accused von der Leyen and Manfred Weber of orchestrating a conspiracy to replace the Hungarian government with a more compliant one like the current one in Poland.

These statements have prompted Brussels to consider a possible response. The case of Georgia will be discussed in the EU’s Political and Security Committee, where the results of the recounts for 14% of the seats will be awaited before any significant decisions are made. Pulling Georgia away from the Union could have consequences for European interests themselves.

Von der Leyen is waiting for the end of Orban’s presidency to see Donald Tusk, a new opponent, take over. In addition, triggering Article 7 to limit Orban could become a priority in this context. Many developments will also depend on the results of the US elections; a Trump victory would further strengthen Orban’s position.

Meanwhile, the permanent representatives of the 27 member countries will meet on the joint declaration in view of the summit on November 8. The issue of Georgia continues to cause tensions within the European Parliament, where the EPP is considering alliances with the sovereignists, arousing discontent among socialists and liberals. The situation is becoming increasingly complex and delicate.