Southern Italy is experiencing growth that is more than double that of Northern Italy, although there remains a gap of 18,000 euros in GDP per capita. However, two serious problems are looming on the horizon: insufficient consumption and the phenomenon of depopulation. This is the analysis provided by the Regional Economic Studies Office of Confcommercio, which highlights how in 2024 total consumption will exceed pre-pandemic levels by around 17 billion, but shows no signs of a significant recovery compared to 2023, with an expected growth of 0.5% compared to 1% the previous year. Only Liguria and Umbria show positive growth rates, of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, while Molise remains stable.

As for GDP, the forecast for 2024 is for growth of 0.8%, a value revised downwards compared to the +0.9% estimated in August. However, at a territorial level, the South will grow at a rate of +1.2%, much higher than the +0.5% of the North. Consumption in the South, however, is weaker, with an expected increase of 0.4% for 2024, compared to 0.5% in the North. The gap between the two areas is also evident in the data on GDP per capita: in the South it stands at 21,714 euros, while in the North it reaches 39,786 euros. Furthermore, the South faces a significant demographic crisis, with a decrease of approximately 161,000 inhabitants between 2022 and 2024, contrasted with an increase of 125,000 in the North, further limiting the development opportunities for the southern regions.

This slowdown highlights a still fragile economy, despite the positive contribution of international tourism, which has supported demand in some areas of the South. The updated estimates of gross domestic product and consumption, both by Italians and foreigners, together with the data of the first two quarters of 2024, suggest that the income-confidence-consumption mechanism has jammed. Real disposable incomes, improved thanks to the increase in employment, contract renewals and the sharp drop in inflation, have not translated into an increase in consumption.

The difficulties in consumer spending, despite the positive contribution of foreign tourism, are reflected in the modest real growth rate of spending forecast for 2024, set at just half a percentage point, a figure that is not very reassuring. This assessment is in line with the downward revision of GDP estimates, now set at 0.8% for 2024, compared to the 1% previously forecast. “The Italian economy is in a complex phase: the South is growing faster than the North, but the gap remains wide. In general, the demographic crisis and the weakness of consumption are worrying. There is a problem of confidence, despite the increase in real incomes.